The gap between promise and reality has never looked sharper

The Economist calculated that to recoup the massive investment in artificial intelligence, the industry must generate 2.5 trillion dollars (about 9.2 trillion shekel) in annual revenue. That exceeds the combined income of the entire global technology sector. Currently, the major firms OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, Meta and SpaceX together scrape roughly 150 billion dollars (about 550 billion shekel). The gap is not a gap. It is a chasm.

Where did the users disappear

The more surprising data hides in the usage itself. The peak adoption in organizations was recorded in mid-2025, when 46% of employees reported using an AI tool. Since then it fell to 33%. The straightforward explanation is not abandonment but shift: most daily tasks do not require a closed, expensive model. Free models, whether open-source or basic versions from the major providers, are fully sufficient. When the free option does the work, subscriptions stay in the wallet.

The clock ticks toward an IPO

OpenAI and Anthropic plan a public offering later this year. That means they will have to present investors with numbers that look realistic relative to return on investment. So far the story was about potential. The moment the shares trade, the potential must turn into cash flow. And the gap between 150 billion and 2.5 trillion does not close in press releases.

What it means in practice

The current business model relies on a few large organizational customers that pay a lot, and many users that pay nothing. It is not sustainable when the invested capital demands a return on the order of a medium-sized country’s GDP. Either prices will rise, or capabilities will be limited, or the market will contract to companies that truly manage to sell added value, not just access to a model.