Bill Gates returns with essay of almost 6,000 words: “We are not ready for what is coming”

Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft and a prominent voice supporting AI in recent years, published an essay of almost 6,000 words titled “The turbulent AI era has arrived. The choices we make now are critical”. He also emphasizes the second sentence of the title as a separate quotation: “The choices we make now are critical”. The tone is a stark departure from the optimistic piece he released in 2023. Gates now declares that the world “is not even close to readiness” for what is approaching, and, worse, “we are not preparing for it”. He cautions that the shift to the new era will be “one of the stormiest periods in human history”, and notes that a reliable plan to slow global development once existed, which he supported.

former optimist changes direction

He argues that the common comparisons to the personal computer (PC) revolution are misleading, and that performance issues of current models “are being solved quickly”. In his view, “this time it’s really different”. Regarding employment, he foresees widespread and persistent unemployment affecting both white-collar and blue-collar workers, stating that “many jobs will disappear forever”. This concern recurs throughout the essay and leads him to propose rare concrete policy measures: a tax on AI tokens and on robots to create a negative incentive for replacing workers, and the designation of sectors that will be reserved for humans only, a category he calls “Human Reserved”. He urges political leaders to act now, “before unemployment spikes, communities suffer and public trust erodes”.

existing institutions insufficient, new global body needed

Gates criticises existing international institutions as “completely failing” in managing a technology that cuts across borders and touches tax, labor, health, national security and education simultaneously. He calls for the creation of dedicated national bodies to coordinate agencies, alongside a new international organization to address cross-border risks, though he does not specify those risks. He cites nuclear, aviation and ozone-layer agreements as models. He acknowledges that such a framework would require cooperation between the United States and China, but offers no mechanism for achieving it, urging countries to begin building the organization “right now”.

document recycles problems without new solutions

Despite its length and urgency, the essay “recycles familiar ground” and offers few original solutions. The systemic barriers Gates identifies—global governance, inter-agency coordination, great-power rivalry—are well-known from earlier debates on disruptive technologies. The result is a bleak document far removed from the optimism of 2023, even as Gates insists it is not too late “to ensure the good outweighs the bad”.