AI electronic waste far exceeds previous estimates, Basel Action Network finds

A new report from the Basel Action Network (BAN) concludes that the electronic waste generated by the AI industry has been dramatically undercounted, because earlier studies tallied only servers and GPUs while ignoring the surrounding infrastructure.

The report, published yesterday, expands the definition to cover all electro-mechanical equipment in a data center: power supply and distribution, cooling systems, backup power, networking gear, and what BAN calls "AI Waste Contagion" — a category that includes telecom infrastructure and personal devices retired early because advancing models make them obsolete. "The waste is not floating in the air," said Jim Puckett, BAN's founder and strategic director. "It depends on a massive amount of dedicated hardware."

By BAN's calculation, each gigawatt of data-center capacity produces roughly 70,000 metric tons of e-waste. McKinsey projects total capacity reaching up to 219 GW by 2030. Extrapolating equipment retirements from 2025 through 2050, BAN arrives at 395 million to 617 million metric tons cumulative, or 8.6 million to 13.1 million metric tons per year directly attributable to AI. That represents about 15 to 20 percent of projected global e-waste by mid-century, which BAN expects to triple to roughly 211 million metric tons annually.

Previous estimates were far more conservative. A 2024 study projected 1.2 million to 5 million metric tons by 2030. Another, published in February this year, estimated 131,000 to 225,000 metric tons per year from AI servers alone — a volume equivalent to the total e-waste of a country the size of Denmark. BAN argues those studies missed roughly 87 percent of data-center electro-mechanical infrastructure by focusing exclusively on accelerators and servers.

Less than a quarter of the 68.3 million metric tons of e-waste generated worldwide each year is formally collected and recycled. The bulk flows into informal recycling, incineration, or landfill, exposing workers and the environment to lead, chromium, and other toxics. The United States, which hosts the largest number of data centers globally, has still not ratified the Basel Convention restricting international trade in hazardous waste. Investigations have found U.S. recyclers continuing to ship waste abroad, where it feeds "backyard recycling" operations in which millions of children work or live nearby, according to the World Health Organization.